This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.
Published | ID | Name | Type | UserRatings | Average | GeekRating | Weight |
2021 | Current | 59 | 8.45 | 5.58 | 3.80 | ||
Estimated | 100 | 8.26 | 5.65 | 3.62 |
To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.
Description |
NATO, The Cold War Goes Hot, Designer Signature Edition marks the return of a true wargaming classic by Bruce Maxwell. NATO simulates a potential NATO/Warsaw Pact conflict in Central Europe during the Cold War years of the 1980's. First published in 1983, this game was Victory Games best-selling title, purchased by over 75,000 gamers worldwide. This new edition is based on an exhaustive two-year study by the Designer of the records that have come to light since the fall of the Berlin Wall. The game combines highly accurate information on the forces the Warsaw Pact actually had with now de-classified reports from the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency regarding what satellite surveillance and HUMINT revealed about their actual plans. The map has also been extensively updated with new satellite geography. Finally, the game system has been reworked to better reflect the fluid, fast paced and deadly nature of modern warfare, while retaining the original intention of simple and intuitive play. Here is the ultimate Cold War game, remastered, and playable in a single sitting. |
Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.
Published | ID | Name | Publisher(s) | Designer(s) | Artist(s) | Categories | Families | Mechanics |
2021 | Compass Games | Bruce S. Maxwell | Bruce Yearian | Modern Warfare | Continents: Europe | Dice Rolling | ||
Wargame | Country: Belgium | Grid Movement | ||||||
Country: Czech Republic | Hexagon Grid | |||||||
Country: Denmark | Movement Points | |||||||
Country: France | Ratio / Combat Results Table | |||||||
Country: Germany | Scenario / Mission / Campaign Game | |||||||
Country: Hungary | Simulation | |||||||
Country: Luxembourg | Variable Set-up | |||||||
Country: Poland | Zone of Control | |||||||
Country: The Netherlands | ||||||||
Crowdfunding: Kickstarter | ||||||||
History: Cold War | ||||||||
Political: NATO | ||||||||
Series: Designer Signature Edition (Compass Games) | ||||||||
Theme: Alternate History | ||||||||
For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/309081
For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.
What games are similar to NATO: The Cold War Goes Hot – Designer Signature Edition? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to NATO: The Cold War Goes Hot – Designer Signature Edition. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.
This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).
Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.
The table below displays games with the most similar data to NATO: The Cold War Goes Hot – Designer Signature Edition. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Similarity | GeekRating | Average | Weight | UserRatings |
-- | 2021 | 1.00 | 5.58 | 8.45 | 3.62 | 59 | ||
1 | 2020 | 1.00 | 5.56 | 9.03 | 4.56 | 44 | ||
2 | 1983 | 1.00 | 5.77 | 6.71 | 3.21 | 581 | ||
3 | 1976 | 1.00 | 6.00 | 7.35 | 2.81 | 711 | ||
4 | 1978 | 0.99 | 5.62 | 6.65 | 2.59 | 229 | ||
5 | 2016 | 0.99 | 5.60 | 8.10 | 4.14 | 98 | ||
6 | 1976 | 0.98 | 5.75 | 6.52 | 3.29 | 621 | ||
7 | 2020 | The Jaws of Victory: Battle of Korsun-Cherkassy Pocket – January/February 1944 | 0.98 | 5.64 | 8.69 | 4.15 | 93 | |
8 | 2018 | 0.98 | 5.55 | 8.20 | 3.20 | 42 | ||
9 | 1981 | 0.98 | 5.53 | 6.52 | 3.38 | 71 | ||
10 | 1977 | 0.98 | 5.69 | 6.77 | 2.80 | 339 | ||
11 | 1989 | 0.97 | 5.53 | 6.98 | 3.88 | 47 | ||
12 | 1982 | 0.97 | 5.51 | 5.88 | 3.00 | 42 | ||
13 | 1977 | 0.97 | 5.57 | 6.44 | 3.41 | 168 | ||
14 | 2007 | 0.97 | 5.52 | 6.64 | 2.57 | 39 | ||
15 | 2002 | 0.97 | 5.64 | 8.06 | 4.19 | 120 | ||
16 | 1972 | 0.97 | 5.57 | 5.94 | 2.72 | 532 | ||
17 | 1976 | 0.97 | 5.50 | 5.73 | 2.83 | 212 | ||
18 | 2003 | 0.97 | 5.78 | 7.66 | 3.12 | 289 | ||
19 | 2003 | 0.97 | 5.55 | 8.49 | 3.27 | 33 | ||
20 | 1982 | 0.97 | 5.54 | 7.39 | 3.12 | 40 | ||
21 | 2019 | 0.97 | 5.53 | 7.30 | 4.14 | 41 | ||
22 | 1980 | 0.97 | 5.55 | 8.66 | 3.45 | 38 | ||
23 | 1991 | 0.97 | 5.68 | 7.07 | 3.43 | 241 | ||
24 | 1978 | 0.96 | 5.76 | 6.68 | 3.16 | 598 | ||
25 | 1983 | 0.96 | 6.34 | 7.73 | 3.80 | 1,212 |
Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.
What games are similar to NATO: The Cold War Goes Hot – Designer Signature Edition while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Score | Similarity | GeekRating | Average | Weight | UserRatings |
-- | 2021 | 5.58 | 1.00 | 5.58 | 8.45 | 3.62 | 59 | ||
1 | 1983 | 6.11 | 0.96 | 6.34 | 7.73 | 3.80 | 1,212 | ||
2 | 2014 | 6.04 | 0.95 | 6.34 | 8.16 | 3.73 | 927 | ||
3 | 1974 | 5.99 | 0.95 | 6.27 | 7.31 | 2.86 | 1,454 | ||
4 | 1976 | 5.97 | 1.00 | 6.00 | 7.35 | 2.81 | 711 | ||
5 | 1983 | 5.74 | 1.00 | 5.77 | 6.71 | 3.21 | 581 | ||
6 | 1978 | 5.68 | 0.95 | 5.96 | 7.00 | 2.30 | 862 | ||
7 | 1976 | 5.64 | 0.98 | 5.75 | 6.52 | 3.29 | 621 | ||
8 | 1975 | 5.61 | 0.95 | 5.89 | 7.17 | 2.15 | 565 | ||
9 | 2003 | 5.60 | 0.97 | 5.78 | 7.66 | 3.12 | 289 | ||
10 | 1977 | 5.57 | 0.98 | 5.69 | 6.77 | 2.80 | 339 | ||
11 | 1978 | 5.56 | 0.99 | 5.62 | 6.65 | 2.59 | 229 | ||
12 | 1978 | 5.56 | 0.96 | 5.76 | 6.68 | 3.16 | 598 | ||
13 | 2020 | 5.54 | 1.00 | 5.56 | 9.03 | 4.56 | 44 | ||
14 | 2016 | 5.53 | 0.99 | 5.60 | 8.10 | 4.14 | 98 | ||
15 | 2020 | The Jaws of Victory: Battle of Korsun-Cherkassy Pocket – January/February 1944 | 5.53 | 0.98 | 5.64 | 8.69 | 4.15 | 93 | |
16 | 1975 | Frederick the Great: The Campaigns of The Soldier King 1756-1759 | 5.52 | 0.96 | 5.78 | 6.95 | 2.70 | 468 | |
17 | 1977 | 5.50 | 0.94 | 5.87 | 6.66 | 3.47 | 968 | ||
18 | 1991 | 5.49 | 0.97 | 5.68 | 7.07 | 3.43 | 241 | ||
19 | 2002 | 5.48 | 0.97 | 5.64 | 8.06 | 4.19 | 120 | ||
20 | 1980 | 5.47 | 0.95 | 5.76 | 6.96 | 3.44 | 455 | ||
21 | 1977 | 5.45 | 0.96 | 5.67 | 7.64 | 3.86 | 176 | ||
22 | 1979 | 5.45 | 0.94 | 5.80 | 7.23 | 4.14 | 452 | ||
23 | 2018 | 5.44 | 0.98 | 5.55 | 8.20 | 3.20 | 42 | ||
24 | 1977 | 5.42 | 0.97 | 5.57 | 6.44 | 3.41 | 168 | ||
25 | 1981 | 5.42 | 0.98 | 5.53 | 6.52 | 3.38 | 71 |
I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.
The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.
Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.
## Warning in abbreviate(neighbor_name, 60): abbreviate used with non-ASCII chars
What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.